Plan fails with option --select-model after making a change

[cams-data]

I'm running the following command: uv run sqlmesh plan --select-model "ch_bronze_nz_stats.areas__regional_council_clipped" -vv after making changes to ch_bronze_nz_stats.areas__regional_council_clipped

And am getting:
Updating virtual layer ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╸━━━ 92.3% • 24/26 • 0:00:01
Error: Execution failed for node SnapshotId<"ch_silver_geography"."geographic_area_shapes": 1549095793>

"ch_silver_geography"."geographic_area_shapes" is downstream of "ch_bronze_nz_stats.areas__regional_council_clipped"

When I inspect the logs I can see:
clickhouse_connect.driver.exceptions.DatabaseError: Received ClickHouse exception, code: 60, server response: Code: 60. DB::Exception: Unknown table expression identifier 'sqlmesh__ch_silver.ch_silver_geography__geographic_area_shapes__3267957768' in scope SELECT * FROM sqlmesh__ch_silver.ch_silver_geography__geographic_area_shapes__3267957768. (UNKNOWN_TABLE) (for url [redacted])
I have checked the database and can see that across all replicas sqlmesh__ch_silver.ch_silver_geography__geographic_area_shapes__3267957768 does not exist. So it seems the fingerprint for the downstream model has changed, but no physical table was created for it to match? I can see the old table in there sqlmesh__ch_silver.ch_silver_geography__geographic_area_shapes__3737929073

If I run the update without --select-model it works, but I had thought even with that option, downstream models that are indirectly affected, would update?